GDI Audit
Currently free during the beta phase
GDI Audit is a post-launch analysis tool by GamedevInvestor that validates pre-release forecasts against real market performance. Published one week after a game's release, it provides investors with critical insights into launch success, forecast accuracy, and actual financial impact on publicly traded publishers.
Each audit compares our GDI Forecast predictions with actual sales data, CCU peaks, review scores, and revenue performance to assess how the launch unfolded and whether the game met, exceeded, or underperformed expectations.
What does the GDI Audit report include?
- •Actual sales performance (Week 1): verified revenue figures, unit sales estimates, and platform distribution data from the first 7 days post-launch.
- •Forecast vs. Reality: detailed comparison of our GDI Forecast predictions (pessimistic/neutral/optimistic scenarios) against actual launch performance.
- •Launch trajectory analysis: CCU peaks, review velocity, wishlist conversion rates, and player retention metrics from launch week.
- •Market reception assessment: Steam review scores, sentiment shifts, refund rates, and community feedback analysis.
- •Revised financial impact: updated projections of how the game's actual performance affects the publisher's revenue, margins, and market valuation.
- •Success factors identification: what went right or wrong, comparing launch execution with pre-release expectations and similar game benchmarks.
Why use GDI Audit (Beta)?
- •Validates investment decisions with real launch data, moving from speculation to verified performance metrics.
- •Tests forecast accuracy, helping you understand the reliability of pre-launch predictions for future investment decisions.
- •Captures critical week-1 momentum that often determines a game's long-term commercial trajectory and publisher stock impact.
- •Provides rapid post-launch intelligence when market expectations are still forming and stock prices remain reactive.
- •Free during the beta phase, offering full access to professional-grade post-launch analysis.
Who is it for?
- •Individual and institutional investors tracking gaming stocks
- •Equity analysts validating thesis and adjusting price targets
- •Portfolio managers assessing short-term and long-term impact
- •Publisher IR teams monitoring launch performance and investor sentiment
- •Game developers and publishers benchmarking their launches against market expectations
GDI Audit: StarRupture Launch Performance & Investment Analysis
StarRupture volume (~450k units/owners) validated the low-price strategy. The stock rallied +63% (421 PLN to 686 PLN) on the news. Adjusted estimator data suggests ~124x sales multiplier and ~$6.6M revenue.
GDI Audit: Everdream Village ($VAR) – Post-Launch Performance & Investment Thesis
Launch significantly underperforms forecasts with Week 1 revenue of $55k (12% of Neutral target). Mixed sentiment and technical instability signal a deep bear case. Recommendation: Sell/Avoid ($VAR).
Post-Launch Audit: Tormentor (MMS) – Structural Failure Confirmed
Tormentor (MMS) launch validates "High Risk" thesis. Week 1 sales (3.9k units) track Pessimistic scenario. High visibility burn and Mixed sentiment (56%) signal rapid revenue decay. Sell $MMS.
Post-Launch Audit: Death Howl – High Quality, Low Commercial Velocity
Death Howl secures "Very Positive" (90%) reviews but suffers high visibility burn. Strong pricing ($16 ASP) offsets lower volume (~8.7k units). Verdict: Niche portfolio filler; immaterial to $11B.
Financial Audit: Frostpunk 2 - Fractured Utopias Post-Launch Analysis
Launch data confirms "Zombie" status for Frostpunk 2 DLC. With rapid visibility decay (95 spots/day) and low engagement (<7k est. units), the release fails to reactivate the IP. Rating: SELL.
GDI Audit: Moonlighter 2 Launch Trajectory & Investment Thesis
Moonlighter 2 clears Month 1 pessimistic sales targets in first week ($771k Revenue), but suffers rapid visibility decay (#21 to #148). Retention concerns outweigh initial volume success.